Opportunity out of Parliament in latest poll, as coalition retains power on back of ACT surge

New Zealand 2 min read

ACT leader David Seymour and The Opportunity Party's Qiulae Wong.

Christopher Luxon remains ahead of Chris Hipkins as preferred prime minister.

RNZ Digital reporters September 7, 2026

The current coalition government would be returned to power based on the results of a new poll, with Opportunity unable to breach the threshold and become kingmaker.

The Quilae Wong-led upstarts have fallen from 6.1 to 4.5 per cent in the latest Taxpayers' Union-Curia Poll, bucking the trend found in other polls.

National was down two percentage points to 29 per cent, and Labour down 1.9 to 25.9 per cent.

ACT and the Greens were the main beneficiaries. The Greens were up 3.8 percentage points to 13.9 per cent, and ACT up 3.2 to 10.5 per cent.

New Zealand First was down 0.7 to 8.4 per cent.

Te Pāti Māori gained 0.5 points to 2 per cent. The party this year hopes to use MMP's overhang to boost the chance of removing the coalition.

Rounding out the party vote results were NZ Loyal (1.5 percent), Animal Justice (1.2), Women's Rights (0.7), Vision NZ (0.5) and the New Conservatives (0.5).

When it came to seats, the coalition - National, ACT and NZ First - would get 64 compared to the opposition - Labour, Greens and Te Pāti Māori - on 56. The right-leaning Taxpayers' Union's analysis assumes Te Pāti Māori would win three seats.

Opportunity would get zero on these results, being below the 5 percent threshold.

Christopher Luxon remained ahead of Chris Hipkins as preferred prime minister, down 2 percentage points to 21.2 per cent. Hipkins fell 2.9 to 16.9 per cent.

The poll was conducted by Curia Market Research for the Taxpayers' Union. It is a random poll of 1000 adult New Zealanders and is weighted to the overall adult population.

It was conducted by phone (landlines and mobile) and online between Tuesday 01 September and Thursday 03 September 2026, has a maximum margin of error of +/- 3.1 per cent and 4.1 per cent were undecided on the party vote question.

(This story was first published on rnz.co.nz

Priyanca Radhakrishnan tries to puncture Luxon’s FTA victory, says India was already sold

Priyanca Radhakrishnan tries to puncture Luxon’s FTA victory, says India was already sold

“Things have changed quite dramatically on the Indian government side,” says the Indian-origin Labour MP.

Sep 16, 2026 | 4 min read
South Asian diaspora raises over $200,000 for New Zealanders missing in Nepal flood

South Asian diaspora raises over $200,000 for New Zealanders missing in Nepal flood

"I'm so proud of the Indian community here who...supported us, saying it is not a Nepal problem but our problem."

Sep 15, 2026 | 4 min read
INZ estimates 9% drop in overstayers after revised count, Indians ranked fourth

INZ estimates 9% drop in overstayers after revised count, Indians ranked fourth

The apparent fall in overstayers is partly due to the way INZ estimates the number of those who have defaulted.

Sep 15, 2026 | 2 min read
Worries about NZ's demographics are legit. Patriotism alone may not be the answer

Worries about NZ's demographics are legit. Patriotism alone may not be the answer

New Zealand does need a serious debate about its population mix. It must be a better one.

Sep 15, 2026 | 4 min read
Tamakis launch Indian-origin candidate for Epsom who surrendered passport and has ‘assimilated’

Tamakis launch Indian-origin candidate for Epsom who surrendered passport and has ‘assimilated’

“I know a whole lot of people are going to be like shocked,” says Hannah Tamaki.

Sep 15, 2026 | 4 min read
'Devastating': Indian family racially abused in Christchurch, hunt on to identify attacker

'Devastating': Indian family racially abused in Christchurch, hunt on to identify attacker

“We’ll always be reminded of this, thanks to this man who thinks we don’t belong.”

Sep 14, 2026 | 2 min read
Immigration reset: National drops hints as parties on left and right target permanent residence

Immigration reset: National drops hints as parties on left and right target permanent residence

New Zealand's permanent residence framework provides an edge over Australia and Canada in attracting overseas talent.

Sep 14, 2026 | 4 min read
ACT list: Parmjeet Parmar slips but stays in the game as Ash Parmar is placed 16th

ACT list: Parmjeet Parmar slips but stays in the game as Ash Parmar is placed 16th

Two repeat Indian-origin candidates have both slipped in the rankings, while two first-timers are ranked significantly lower.

Sep 13, 2026 | 3 min read
'Everything seems to be down": Indian businesses report encouraging turnaround in crime

'Everything seems to be down": Indian businesses report encouraging turnaround in crime

"As with everything the government does, there was a time-lag in these laws making a material effect on the ground."

Sep 11, 2026 | 6 min read
Christian man who can't go to church in China granted asylum in New Zealand

Christian man who can't go to church in China granted asylum in New Zealand

“The Chinese Communist Party has a policy to limit and control the practice of religion in China.”

Sep 11, 2026 | 3 min read
Recommended article

Community

South Asian diaspora raises over $200,000 for New Zealanders missing in Nepal flood

Policy & Governance

A former National candidate wants MPs drug-tested four times a year. Not just for the obvious

Politics

Peters' 'go back' culture-war is beginning to bite NZ First and dent its popularity

Policy & Governance

Diaspora members hide names, switch off cameras amid rising foreign interference fears

Recommended article

Policy & Governance

The Parent Resident Visa queue is back. The door is still narrow.